How Global Health Experts are Redefining Pandemic Risk: Are We Ready to Predict the Risk of Emerging Threats?

Written by: Patty Sanchez Bao and Cynthia Alame, United Nations Foundation

Last updated December 2, 2024

 

Despite years of global efforts to strengthen pandemic prevention and preparedness capacities, the numbers of high-threat infectious diseases are already on the rise, with both re-emerging and novel outbreaks. This year alone, ongoing outbreaks of Clade II mpox have resulted in more than 100,000 cases in 122 total countries—including 115 nations where mpox had not been previously reported. Additionally, there have been 66 confirmed cases of Marburg virus disease, 44 cases of H5N1 across five countries, and over 12 million cases of dengue reported in the Americas. Recent scientific research warns that the occurrence of public health events with mortality levels similar to the COVID-19 pandemic should not be considered a “once in a century” risk but rather one that may occur with an annual probability of 2-3 percent, meaning such an event might happen once every 33 to 50 years. In light of these events, the question of the next global pandemic is no longer “if,” but “when.”

As the risk of infectious disease spread increases, significant gaps remain in the scientific infrastructure needed to assess and monitor these risks, particularly in understanding how their drivers evolve over time. Estimates suggest that future pandemics pose a serious and often underestimated threat to human lives and livelihoods, comparable in scale to the risks associated with climate change. Therefore, it is essential to study and understand pandemic risks more effectively.

Currently, the research landscape is fragmented, highlighting an urgent need for comprehensive data and tools to conduct robust risk assessments. Most importantly, policymakers must be prepared to translate these risk assessments into actionable strategies that enhance countries’ capacities to respond to outbreaks promptly. Adopting a One Health approach is crucial in this effort, as it allows for the integration of multi-sectoral expertise to inform health policies.

In response to this critical need, the United Nations Foundation, in collaboration with the US National Academy of Medicine, the Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, and the Global Pandemic Monitoring Board, with support from Pax sapiens and the Skoll Foundation, hosted an international workshop titled “Pandemic Risk Assessment and its Intersection with Climate Change: Needs, Opportunities, and Design Considerations.” Held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 28 and 29, 2024, this two-day workshop aimed to discuss the scientific capabilities and identify gaps in pandemic risk assessment.

Convening over 85 experts and key stakeholders from different regions across the world, this workshop served as a vital platform to ignite the discussion on a comprehensive risk assessment agenda for infectious disease hazards with pandemic potential, with a specific focus on how climate factors may contribute to these risks, the methodologies required to predict the emergence of infectious diseases, the post-emergence risk of spread, and the critical need for cross-sectoral collaboration to address research gaps.

Throughout the workshop, participants engaged in various sessions structured around the different components of pandemic risk assessment. They identified areas where the research was more mature and those that needed further improvement, and they discussed the types of information that policymakers need to guide planning, prioritization, and resource allocation.

The workshop achieved three primary outcomes:

• Alignment on need. Policymakers from multilateral health agencies, national ministries of health, and other agencies responsible for international collective action against infectious disease threats validated the importance and need for ongoing monitoring of pandemic risk and its drivers.
• Assessment of technical feasibility. Scientists from various disciplines and organizations examined six distinct but interrelated dimensions of pandemic risk assessment. They evaluated whether the scientific research in each area was sufficiently advanced to support an effective assessment agenda. There was a strong consensus that, while many aspects of pandemic science are still relatively new, they are developing rapidly. Therefore, it is essential to establish an assessment process focused on areas where the science is more rigorous and precise, while also proposing a research agenda for other critical areas that require further exploration.

• Community-building. Finally, the workshop affirmed the “supply side” of the equation: scientists are eager to come together as a cohesive scientific community with a structured and productive research agenda. There was widespread agreement on the important aspects of risk assessment, and the group demonstrated a strong commitment to further developing the essential infrastructure—such as data, networks, and collaborations—to support the establishment of an effective assessment process.

Without collective action and a shared agenda, progress in understanding pandemic risk and utilizing these scientific capabilities to strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness and response will remain inadequate. By initiating this crucial conversation, the workshop played a key role in emphasizing the need for global solidarity in addressing pandemic risks. Through creating a shared agenda to steer collaborative efforts, participants left with a clear understanding of the need to work together to advance risk assessment, strengthen global coordination and resilience, and improve the ability to protect lives and safeguard communities in our pandemic-prone world.

About the AuthorS

Patty Sanchez Bao leads the implementation of the Foundation’s advocacy, communications, and resource mobilization strategy to advance global support for malaria elimination in Latin America and the Caribbean. Patty has many years of experience working on advancing human development for indigenous communities, women, and other vulnerable populations. Patty brings particular expertise in international development, corporate social responsibility, public-private partnerships for poverty alleviation, knowledge management, strategic communication, and systematic monitoring and evaluation. She holds a master’s degree in Cultural Anthropology from the University of Virginia, a Licenciatura in Social Anthropology, and a bachelor’s in social sciences from the Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru.

Cynthia Alame is a Global Health Communications Intern at the United Nations Foundation. In this role, she supports the communications goals for the UN Foundation’s Global Health team’s various advocacy areas. Cynthia Alame is currently a Master of Public Health (MPH) candidate in the Global Health Policy concentration at George Washington University’s Milken Institute School of Public Health and received her Bachelor of Arts in Health Communication from the American University in Beirut.

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