The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change met in Sofia, Bulgaria for the Sixtieth-First Session of the Panel (IPCC-61) from July 27 to August 2, 2024. Member governments approved the outlines for the Special Report on Climate Change and Cities and the Methodology Report on Short Lived Climate Forcers.
Finally, delegates also discussed the timeline of the cycle, and how to make it policy-relevant in accordance with key UNFCCC milestones over the next five to seven years, including the second and third Global Stocktakes.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM IPCC’s SIXTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE (AR6)
The AR6 was the most rigorous and ambitious cycle of the IPCC in terms of the amount of literature assessed and reports produced. Following the conclusion of the cycle, member governments and bureau members reflected on key lessons from the AR6 that have implications on the AR7 Programme of Work, including:
- The challenges faced in the AR6 due to the unprecedented number of reports, rapidly increasing literature, and a significant increase of review comments on the Final Government Draft, which led to a very high workload causing delays in report timelines.
- The need for “shorter and more concise [reports], focused on new science that provides policy-relevant information”
- The need to “further enhance collaboration between Working Groups, the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI), and the Task Group on Data Support for Climate Change Assessments (TG-Data) as a pre-condition for more successful, interactive, and comprehensive results.”
- The potential to increasingly deploy the instrument of Expert Meetings on dedicated topics.
- The suggestion to “consider the adoption of a sustainability and climate-related institutional strategy”, in order to reduce the carbon footprint of the assessment.
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UPDATES FROM THE WORKING GROUPS
The Co-Chairs of Working Groups I, II, and III (WGI, WGII, WGIII) prepared progress reports for review by the Panel at IPCC-60 describing activities undertaken since the election of the Bureau in July 2023. These progress reports include:
- Update from Working Group I (WGI)
- The WGI Technical Support Unit (TSU) has been established in France at the Universite Paris-Saclay. China has agreed to provide additional support as needed.
- WGI contributed to the preparation of the Call for Nominations for the scoping meeting of the Special Report on Climate Change and Cities, and is assisting in the selection of participants.
- WGI is reviewing applications for the AR7 Joint Scoping Meeting and plans to complete its provisional list of accepted nominations by early August 2024.
- Update from Working Group II (WGII)
- The WGII TSU will be hosted by Deltares in the Netherlands, and the Singapore Management University in Singapore.
- WGII is assisting in the development of the Special Report on Climate Change and Cities, with direct support from its TSU.
- WGII is reviewing applications for the AR7 Joint Scoping Meeting and plans to complete its provisional list of accepted nominations by early August 2024.
- Update from Working Group III
- The WGIII TSU structure has been agreed by the WGIII Co-Chairs. The WGIII TSU will be distributed among the U.S. Global Change Research Program in Washington, DC, at partner entities in Asheville, NC, and the Academy of Sciences Malaysia.
- WGIII contributed to the planning and execution of the scoping meeting nominations process for the Special Report on Climate Change and Cities.
- WGIII is reviewing applications for the AR7 Joint Scoping Meeting and plans to complete its provisional list of accepted nominations by early August 2024.
All Working Groups reported on their efforts to enhance cross-Working Group collaboration throughout the cycle, which was identified as a key lesson from AR6. Monthly meetings of the Working Group Co-Chairs, with additional weekly meetings for targeted activities, and bi-weekly meetings of the TSUs have been established to support further coordination.
PLANNING FOR THE SEVENTH ASSESSMENT CYCLE (AR7)
- The cycle will consist of reports from each Working Groups, timing to be decided at the next plenary meeting (IPCC-62):
- Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
- Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
- Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change
- An update to the 1994 Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations, and adaptation indicators, metrics and methodologies, to be developed in conjunction with the WGII report but published as a distinct product.
- The cycle will conclude with a Synthesis Report as soon as possible after the conclusion of the working group reports by late 2029.
- A Special Report on Climate Change and Cities by March 19, 2027.
- A Methodology Report on Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs).
- An Expert Meeting of the Task Force on Inventories for Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies, Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage and provide a Methodology Report by the end of 2027.